Friday, June 26, 2020

Covid-19 Pandemic From the Perspective of a Simple Texan on June 25th 2020

Before the introduction, we need to start with the data. These cases and deaths aren't a projection of what might happen. This is what has happened as of June 25th, 2020:
  1. Van Zandt County 59 cases 3 Deaths 56,019 people = 5.084% Mortality with 0.105% of the Population dead so far.
  2. Texas 125,921 cases 2,249 deaths 28,304,000 people = 1.786% Mortality with 0.070% of the Population dead so far.
  3. United States 2,374,000 cases 121,809 deaths 328,200,00 people = 5.130% Mortality with 0.071% of the population dead so far
  4. World 9,630,000 cases 490,000 deaths 7,793,977,800 people = 5.088% Mortality with 0.006% of the population dead so far.
     Everyone, layman or Epidemiologist, sees the same numbers. Every single case and death is written and recorded by medical doctors. These numbers aren't a conspiracy, projection or exaggeration. The meaning or interpretation of the numbers has become a highly debated popular topic. In the age of globalized social media we have 4.7 Billion of 7.7 Billion people or 59% of everyone. If we exclude children and the very old(80 years plus) that means nearly every living adult in nearly every country is accessing the internet daily. That means everyone has the ability to tell a story about the Covid-19 Pandemic to every single person alive in an instant. It doesn't mean everyone will read your story, just that they have access to your perspective and the ability to share that perspective.
     Everyone's perspective is flawed, mine, yours, even Dr. Anthony Fauci Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease. However, everyone's perspective is flawed in different ways. Dr Fauci studied medicine and science for 15+ years, with a career that includes over 50 years of infectious disease research, involving 250 novel infections, starting with HIV and currently Covid-19. His perspective is flawed because there is a limit to how much can be taught in university, graduate school, medical school and residency. Everything beyond that has to be learned by practicing medicine and new research. Even after a 52 year(and counting), Dr. Fauci's perspective is flawed because there's limited amount of hours in the day, days in a year, years in a career. That being said, Dr. Fauci has the most advantageous perspective of anyone alive.
     The best way I can explain how "good" or "bad" a "flawed" perspective is with my all time favorite game. A game I've played more than any other(video game or otherwise), Chess. The layman's perspective of Chess is usually either, "I don't know the rule and it's too complicated" or "I know the rules but I'm not good." I've easily played more than 10,000 games(probably a lot more than that) of Chess. I'm not very good at Chess, I just play a lot(well used to from 2005-2010). I know all the strategies. That's a given. I could play without seeing the board. If the board was flipped, I could reassemble the pieces. I'm seriously terrible at Chess, I just play a lot. In the Chess community a person is bad at Chess until they are playing MANY, and I do mean many, games everyday. Even then, they are still bad, but it's the "best bad" a bad player can be. Same goes for any sport. If you don't play football everyday, you can't be good. You can't even be your "best bad." If playing everyday doesn't make a person good, what does? Studying the game, developing your strategy, playing better opponents, memorizing large amounts of data about the game.
     Due to the fact that a professional can make flawed decisions based on a flawed perspective in their profession. It becomes very easy to be critical or judgmental of their decisions. Unfortunately, being able to criticize makes a person feel very confident that their bad perspective is better than an experts. That's what the Dunning-Kruger effect describes in this graph:
Where Are You On The Dunning-Kruger Wiggle? | TrainingPeaks
     So what's my perspective:  
  1. Hope for the best but understand that data and facts can't be changed.
  2. The news can't give a person the information they need to form a good informed opinion or interpretation of the data. 
  3. Listen to the NIIH and CDC.(If we did all these things, we could eradicate colds and flus too)
    1. Wear a mask.
    2. Wash your hands.
    3. 6 feet apart.
    4. Call in sick if sick.
  4. Understand that a global pandemic isn't a political issue. 
  5. Don't put arbitrary limits on the Corona virus. 
    1. Don't compare Coronavirus to Influenza.
      1. It's not the same variety of virus.
      2. It's been 102 years since a strain of influenza killed more people than corona virus.
    2. Don't assume it will be over.(Pandemics can become endemic)
      1. In April 2020
      2. After it kills 50,000 people like flu
      3. In May 2020
      4. When we "flatten the curve
      5. After it kills 100,000 people
      6. When summer starts
      7. After the "first wave", second wave, third wave
      8. Quickly through vaccines
        1. Some vaccines are hard to develop.
        2. Some viruses quickly evolve.
  6. If you are looking for good information on Pandemics/Covid-19(43 minutes total)
    1. Laurie Garrett: What can we learn from the 1918 flu?
    2. Coronavirus Is Our Future | Alanna Shaikh | TEDxSMU
    3. Why COVID-19 is hitting us now -- and how to prepare for the next outbreak | Alanna Shaikh
  1. Don't dehumanize the victims.
    1. An 80 year old person in 2019 could expect to live another 8 years. A 90 year old person, another 5. 
    2. These deaths may be "natural" but they are also preventable.